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Trends and Outlook In Libya, fighting between Misratan-led forces, nominally loyal to the internationally recognised Presidency Council (PC), and forces loyal to eastern strongman General Haftar escalated throughout December, risking worse clashes around Sirte, Jufra or Tripoli in January.
In early December Misratan-led forces took full control of Sirte from IS, but rifts over governance of the city quickly emerged between the PC-supported city council, Misratan militias and the east-based government.
December saw fighting worsen between rival forces in Libya, including over oil facilities, which could escalate in January and upset the precarious political and economic balance.
Turkey’s security deteriorated further following a series of violent attacks on civilians and security forces, including a twin bombing in the capital, Istanbul, claimed by an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
Boko Haram continued attacks against security forces and civilians in Far North at lower rate: militants attacked army in Djbrili, Mayo-Moskota district 12 Dec; killed two civilians in Grea, Kolofata district 14 Dec and two others in Bame, Kolofata district 28 Dec; suicide bombing killed two civilians in Mora 25 Dec.
Following violent protests against perceived govt marginalisation of minority English-speakers in Nov, police 8 Dec fired on English-speaking protesters trying to block ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) rally in Bamenda, capital of Anglophone North West region, killing at least four; protesters burnt police station.
Crisis Group haspreviously warned of the threat of IS in the North Caucasus and the need for Russia to develop a de-radicalisation strategy and address unresolved grievances.Govt 7 Dec released eleven opposition members arrested in Nov anti-govt protest organised by New Opposition Front for Transition and Change (FONAC) coalition.Rebel group Chadian Front for Change and Accord (FACT) 13 Dec said Libyan General Khalifa Haftar’s forces carried out airstrike on its base in southern Libya 10 Dec killing one FACT rebel.UN mission (MINUSCA) 14 Dec reported “alarming increase” in human rights abuses by ex-Seleka and anti-balaka groups, Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) rebels and Fulani armed groups since Aug 2016.UN report 5 Dec accused sixteen Gabonese and 25 Burundian peacekeepers of sexual abuse and exploitation in CAR 2014-2015.
Political tensions spiked in Gambia and Macedonia following elections.